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Why we win
I’ve always been interested in horseracing, but my greater interests are mathematics and probability theory. Some years ago I decided to combine these interests by compiling my own ratings.
In essence, ratings are numerical values which I assign to each horse in a race, to represent their winning chances. Let’s take a theoretical 4-horse race as an example:
Much Binding … 39
Dante’s Dance … 26
Waheeb … 21
Crackerjacker … 14
If these ratings represented “scores” out of 100, Much Binding would have a 39% chance of winning, Dante’s Dance a 26% chance, and so on. In order to compile my ratings I use the following elements:
Horse’s form
Horse’s potential today based on whether some runners are improving
Jockey’s form
Jockey’s potential today based on whether some are improving
Trainer’s form
Trainer’s potential today based on whether some are improving
Going - will it suit the horse
Going - will it suit the jockey
Going - what is the trainer’s record on today’s surface
Trainer/jockey combination: have they recently worked well together
Jockey/horse combination: have they recently worked well together
Sectional timing. The overall time taken for a horse to complete the race may be misleading. If a horse is likely to win by many lengths, the runner may be slowed towards the line so that it wins by a lesser distance. This helps its handicap assessment. It may, however, have shown excellent speed earlier in the race to come from a boxed position to close third. Thus an early section of the race may have been run significantly faster than the final section. Study of sectional timing is extremely important in my view, but is overlooked by many.
I assign a numerical value to each of the foregoing 12 elements (plus a further 5 which will remain secret). The combined value of these elements for each runner represents my calculation of the runner’s winning chance. If these calculations show that a horse has a reasonable prospect of winning and has high odds, then the horse becomes a selection.
Put another way, if my ratings indicate a one-in-six chance of winning but the odds are 10-1, then we have a bet. The maths are obvious - the odds are far too generous!
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